Look for Wyckoff in the right places.
#btc #bitcoin #crypto #cryptotrading #trading #education
Since my partner Mayfair_Ventures started talking bearish about BTC in March 2021, and also talking about Wyckoff theory, a lot of commentators picked up on it and made Wyckoff more widely known.
Most likely they read up on it quickly and got some kind of understanding, but unless you have been using it for a while in anger, as in, making real trading decisions based on it, it's not that easy to use.
There is ALWAYS a bigger picture to look at. Also, you rarely get a perfect Wyckoff.
One person's spring is another's confirmation that this is a distribution. Like all trading, there is a combination of signs.
Take this accumulation from Summer 2021. It only proved it was accumulation when it exited the ranger to the upside. You had to wait for the retest to get a sensible trade. Even then, the overall risk reward was at best mediocre, and no one in the crypto space had the patience to wait almost 7 weeks for it, instead getting rinsed at 50k and likely stopped out.
And also remember the narrative was around the Elliott Wave that we'd outlined, because you can't just rely on Wyckoff, or any one thing, if you want a sensible trading strategy.
Right now, for a number of sensible logical reasons outlined in the attached posts and videos, I am looking for Wyckoff Distribution. My bias is downward. If you want to know why, look at the other posts, I'm not re-hashing it all again here. The important thing is the pattern I expect to see, involving a significant break of the consolidation structure to the downside and then a retest of the zone.
Hmmm....
I spoke in earlier posts about there being a chance of a final upthrust above the ATH, just to sucker the last few in. I think he chances of this are reduced to about 5-10% now, given recent price action. The middle of the consolidation (66K) seems like the top for now. If it retests and fails, then it may be time to pull the trigger.
Please bear in mind that BTC is now a mature instrument, and the days of exponential prices are gone.
Good luck, because it's better to be lucky than good, most of the time!