Crash coming soon

#sp500 #stocktrading #trading #stockmarket

I wrote this 18 months ago. I still stand by every word.

TLDR:

April 2022.. Recession fears, interest rate hikes, high inflation

In the first phase of a recession, the market falls due to fear because "everyone knows a recession is coming"

In the second phase, companies report excellent profits because "duh it's inflation that's why we raise our prices" when actually they are price gouging swine. Excellent profits = market rises, which traders don't understand because "Wait this is a recession? I seem to be short and caught".

Third phase.. No one has any savings left, thanks to the price gouging. Rents and heating bills and food prices are sky-high. The proles can only afford the basics. Companies will only report their drops in profits 3 months later. At first it's just a few poor reports, then a flood. They don't have sufficient reserves because they had pressure to pay fat dividends to the greedy funds that own them, so they start to fail. This happens just as all the shorts in stocks cut their losses and buy it back and those who missed out on the "fools rally" crack and buy in at the top.

Fourth phase: Crash.

We may get a new ATH or a double top beforehand, but you heard the truth here first.


Look at the Commitments of Traders indicator at the bottom.. Big boys selling off. We give this away free. See website.

Sep 12, 2023

Comment:

The CoT tool in this example has a bug in it that removes the CoT data from my argument in the piece. The CoT data shown is for DXY, which is the default when TV cannot find the right CoT for the symbol.

This has been fixed. Remove and re-add the indicator to get the update.

This does NOT change my view: We are up first to go down.... A LOT!

The CoT still agrees with the argument but not as strongly.